For many of you, this information will be after the fact because you have already decided that January is a good time to tap. In fact the last 10 days of the month has had some very good weather for sap flow. If you live in the southern states or even southern Ohio the decision to tap was a good because you are never guaranteed a season past mid March. However, this post is directed more to the producers up north that are on the fence about tapping. I present three maps for your consideration. The top graph is the temperature forecast for NE Ohio from AccuWeather. Their 30 day forecasts have been reasonably reliable. The solid orange line is the average temperature for the given dates The broken orange line is the daily highs and the broken blue line is the daily low temps. Once we get past the 5th of February it appears the we are going to drop below normal and stay there until the end of the month. Again this is a 30 day outlook but it matches up with what all of the local weather stations are predicting.
The Next graph is NOAA Weathers Forecast for February. This Graph is indicating we will have equal chances of being above normal, normal or below normal, at least for Ohio. What is interesting, is all of the above normal weather extending up into New England.
The last Graph is the AccuWeather Forecast for Underhill Vermont, home of the UVM Proctor Maple Research Center. I picked this location because they do a marvelous job of tracking weather data. There temperatures graph appears to be slightly milder than the Ohio graph, with a couple of above normal spikes. The thing to notice is the sharp rise in the daily high temperature’s at the end of February.
I hope this information will help to make your decision easier. Keep in mind that these are along range forecasts and they are subject to error. Also keep in mind if they are right and you tap this weekend, your window to collect sap will be very narrow and you could be frozen out for three weeks or longer. Also consider what the capabilities of your collection system.